The article reports on the recently released FOMC minutes from February 18, 2026, revealing a Federal Reserve confident in labor market stability but divided and uncertain regarding the inflation outlook and future rate path.
Staff economic forecasts were stronger than previous projections, anticipating real GDP growth to outpace potential through 2028 and a gradual decline in the unemployment rate. However, the inflation forecast was slightly higher, with upside risks noted.
Discussions among FOMC members highlighted persistent elevated core goods inflation, partly due to tariffs, while disinflation continued for core services. Participants were split on monetary policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts if inflation declines, others preferring to hold steady, and a few even suggesting potential upward adjustments if inflation persists.
Notably, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller dissented, preferring a 1/4 percentage point rate cut at the meeting. Gold prices reacted positively to the minutes, trading near session highs.
Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial commented on the Fed's optimistic growth projections and building financial stability risks.
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