Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Likely to Have Limited Impact on U.S. Gas Prices

A month-long disruption could see prices increase by 130%, reaching $US25 per million British thermal units, as benchmarks have not fully priced in the associated risks. Approximately one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas, primarily from Qatar, transits through this chokepoint.

While extended disruptions could push European prices above €100 per megawatt-hour, the impact on US natural gas prices is expected to be limited due to the US being a net exporter with liquefaction plants operating at full capacity, leaving little room to offset global supply issues.